Fascinating video chart. The hegemony of USA, the rise and relative fall of Japan and now the rise of China.Read more…
Global trade deals can’t substitute for a good Brexit deal
This week the think tank OpenEurope published a report with recommendations for Britain’s future trade after it leaves the EU. It suggests that Britain may be able to make up much of its shortfall in trade resulting from leaving the EU by strengthening its trade, particularly in services, with…Read more…
The return of the squeeze?
This is the latest in our regular round-up of the state of the economy. Last month my colleague Silkie Cragg discussed the contradictory nature of data regarding the state of the economy as we entered Quarter 4 of 2016. This month the picture seems to …Read more…
GDP, Inflation and Optimism Bias
January contains a number of key dates: New Year’s Day is obviously a big one, blue Monday – the day which some deeply dubious psychology has identified as the most depressing of the year; and it heralds the first release of the fourth quarter and thus calendar year GDP figures for the previous…Read more…
Revival in GDP quarterly growth figure disguises increased imbalances
GDP quarterly growth was back up to 0.7% in 2015 Q2 from 0.4% in Q1, and was in-line with market expectations. The main reasons for the revival in growth were a surge in energy extraction and use and a rebound in service activity. Acting in the opposite direction was the first fall in manufacturing…Read more…
The slowest ever recovery slows down again
Quarterly GDP growth is estimated at only 0.3% in 2015 Q1, half the rate of 0.6% seen in both Q3 and Q4 of 2014, and only a third of the 0.9% growth seen a year ago in 2014 Q1. The median view of commentators was for 0.5%, and 0.3% coincided with the most pessimistic of those…
The post The…Read more…
The ‘long-term plan’ is a political plan not an economic plan
Today the OBR released figures that showed, as widely expected, deficit reduction to date has stalled. Balancing the books (one further year into the future) relies on eye-watering and dangerous cuts in departmental spending. Meantime, in the economy, household debts have been revised up by £174…Read more…