By Professor David Bailey It’s great news that the government seems to at last ‘get it’ and is ready to part-nationalise Tata’s UK steel assets and offer debt financing if a private buyer can be…Read more…
The FT’s Tim Harford not Labour is misrepresenting the earnings crisis
Since the financial crisis, it is beyond doubt that wages and incomes have been exceptionally weak. Yet in the weekend Financial Times, the Labour Party’s use of real earnings figures was heavily criticised by Tim Harford (here). In the company of Donald Trump’s use of crime statistics and Jeremy…Read more…
Don’t overdo the rise in unemployment, but labour market gains have clearly moderated
The focus of the coverage of the labour market statistics today is on a small rise in the unemployment figures (+21K, with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.1%). Perhaps commentators are on the lookout for the negative given wider conditions in financia…Read more…
IMF & World Bank should change course on growth & austerity
The global trade union movement is pressing the ‘international financial institutions’ (IFIs) to switch track, abandoning support for austerity, and replacing it with a global recovery strategy consisting of public investment stimulus and coordinated wage increase; investments in…Read more…
The public need to understand how the productivity fallacy supports spending cuts
It is difficult for the public to appreciate how fundamental a specific interpretation of ‘productivity’ is to supporting the government’s fiscal policy. It is even more difficult to comprehend that this interpretation is primarily a policy-based or ideological judgement, based on the thinnest…Read more…
ONS data confirms rents in London are a high-rise nightmare
The latest monthly ONS economic review includes a focus on housing tenure. There are a number of takeaways from this latest release but the prospects for those in rented accommodation appear gloomy, and Londoners, especially younger Londoners are beari…Read more…
Debt remains a bigger burden for the lowest paid
On Monday, the ONS released the latest instalment of their data on household debt inequalities between July 2012 and June 2014. The data indicates that the absolute and relative burden still falls disproportionately heavily on the lowest paid. For instance: “Twice as many individuals living in…Read more…
Tata steel crisis needs real action – not confusion and mixed messages
Tata Steel’s plans to sell its UK assets have plunged our steel industry into uncertainty. It’s not just the 4,000 steelworkers in Port Talbot who risk losing their jobs but also thousands more workers in Tata’s businesses elsewhere in the UK, and people working in Tata’s supply chains – which…Read more…
UK home to three quarters of all the €-millionaire bankers in Europe
In 2014 the UK was home to 2,926 €-millionaire bankers, according to new report published by the European Banking Authority. This is more than ten times as many as Germany, who come in second with 242. Moreover the UK figure is up 40% on last year, when there were 2,086 €-millionaire bankers. Note…Read more…
Labour Needs To Get To Grips With The Digital Economy
As the digital revolution gathers at a rapidly increasing pace so is the growth of new forms of employment. One of these is ‘gig workers’ – for ‘one size fits all’ buzzword for anything from…Read more…
Unite To Campaign To Remain In EU
Unite has announced that it will campaign for the country to remain a member of the European Union. The union’s 63-strong executive council, consisting of lay representatives drawn from workplaces…Read more…
#Budget2016 arithmetic made simple: the madness of George’s surplus rule
The Chancellor has broken his welfare cap. He bust his debt rule (again). The great part of the policy action seems to have been about making sure it wasn’t a full house of broken rules. Because of the significantly weaker economy, government revenues were down by an average of around £10bn a year…Read more…
#Budget2016: What’s behind the changes to business taxation?
George Osborne has cut corporation tax again. In 2020, the rate will go down to 17% – lower than the basic rate of income tax. Given the extent of the cuts being meted out to welfare spending and local government services, this choice – forecast to cost nearly £1 billion when it comes in…Read more…
Update: #Budget2016 is much better for the better off
Quick update Earlier today I discussed the costs and benefits of the Chancellor’s plans to increase the personal tax allowance (PTA) to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold (HRT) to £50,000 by 2020 (Spoiler alert: the costs are high and the benefits are scant). Today the Chancellor took a…Read more…
#Budget2016: This was no budget for the next generation
The Chancellor’s big speech today closed with the bold claim that this was a budget for the next generation. But the detail in the speech shows his gamble isn’t paying off. Far from increasing growth, he’s had to downgrade his forecasts and accept that his plan is failing on productivity and pay,…Read more…
#Budget2016: A lost dozen years, with yet another hit to earnings and living standards
As the Chancellor confronts his failure to deliver a secure economy with stronger growth, working people confront yet another hit to living standards. Real earnings grew in 2015 by 2.5%, a positive figure for the first time since 2007; next year they w…Read more…
#Budget2016: Altering tax thresholds is an expensive way to aid the well paid
The chancellor has promised measures to increase the personal tax allowance (PTA) for low-paid workers (the amount they can earn in a year before being liable for tax) also the higher rate threshold (HRT) (the point beyond which tax increases to 40%). While both measures have been portrayed as a…Read more…
Budget 2016: Osborne’s five year failure to tackle the real problems
On Wednesday, Chancellor George Osborne will deliver his sixth budget. In his first budget back in 2010, he identified a number of challenges for our imbalanced and over-indebted economy that his strategy indended to resolve. He’s had five budgets since to tackle them, but looking back at his…Read more…
TUC Budget Statement: Fiscal consolidation has failed. Make it stop.
In their June 2010 Budget the coalition expected the economy over 2010-2015 to grow in cash terms by 29%; instead it grew by only 20%. This amounts to a cash shortfall of £140bn (on the basis of today’s NA definitions, as on the chart). £140bn is a big number that reflects a double hit,…Read more…
ONS pronounce on the future of inflation measurement, with RPI “not a good measure”
Today the National Statistician John Pullinger published advice on the ‘future of consumer inflation statistics in the UK’ (here). The trade union movement has taken a close interest in these issues and has contributed to the debate at various points. The purpose of this blog is to…Read more…