Prompted in part by the OECD’s latest warnings, more and more commentators are now arguing for expansionary policies. They argue that with the monetary policy near exhausted, governments need to step up and spend. The OECD set matters in motion. In their latest economic report (here; chief…Read more…
Now a lost eleven years on pay, never before known in history
Real earnings grew in 2015 by 2.5%, a positive figure for the first time since 2007. I.e. 2015 was the first year when pay growth outstripped inflation in 8 years.* But there is a long way to go: real earnings still stand 5¾% below the 2007 peak. Projecting forwards using the official forecasts for…Read more…
Public sector jobs cuts hit the hardest in areas that can at least afford it
The TUC has commented before on how London has disproportionately benefitted from employment growth; this post discusses how the position has been exacerbated by public sector job cuts. Public and private sector contributions to employment growth, 2010…Read more…
Unions and productivity
It is heartunions week – and perhaps one of the more surprising reasons to love unions is that they are good for productivity. I have an article on this in an e-pamphlet recently published by the IPA ‘Involvement and Productivity – The missing piece of the puzzle?’ Productivity has risen up the…Read more…
What role for industrial strategy in wealth redistribution?
Yesterday, the ever-thoughtful Policy Network caught my eye with the following tweet: “The left needs to create a new industrial strategy to deliver redistribution without the help of the big state.” This tweet linked to an article, ‘Socialism without the state’, by Claudia Chwalisz and Patrick…Read more…
Tougher economic conditions, but the IFS suggests the Chancellor’s rules are holding back growth
Yesterday the IFS set out a bleaker view for the economy and public finances in its Green Budget, which is published every year in the run-up to the Chancellor’s Budget Statement. Given the gloomy projections, let’s hope the government takes note, especially with regard to the fiscal mandate….Read more…
The Bank of England downgrade economic prospects, but over-egg demand and under-egg supply?
Only at the end of December, in the wake of the Federal Reserve interest rate rise, there was talk about starting the ‘normalisation’ of UK interest rates. As if there was any doubt, yesterday the Bank of England kicked any such notion into the ‘long grass’ (as the FT puts it). Even ahead of…Read more…
GDP, Inflation and Optimism Bias
January contains a number of key dates: New Year’s Day is obviously a big one, blue Monday – the day which some deeply dubious psychology has identified as the most depressing of the year; and it heralds the first release of the fourth quarter and thus calendar year GDP figures for the previous…Read more…
What is the future of monetary policy?
This morning I went to a Resolution Foundation event about the future of monetary policy. Although I cannot claim to be an expert, having listened to the views of the panel I thought I’d make some reflections. The story of recent monetary policy During the Global Financial Crisis, the Bank of…Read more…
4 Ds that matter more than #Davos: Debt, Demand, Deflation and Denial
This week has seen global financial markets continuing to collapse. The UK FTSE entered so-called ‘bear market’ territory (falling at one point by over 20% from peak). Official figures showed the UK CPI was zero in 2015, the lowest annual figure since the great depression. In the policy arena,…Read more…
Trade Unions And The Coming Digital Revolution
Phrases such as ‘Industry 4.0’, ‘Big Data’ and ‘The Internet Of Things’ are now common currency as the predictions of a new digital world and a new world of work. The…Read more…
If “we are the builders”, why is construction now in recession?
It has not been a good start to 2016. While markets thrash around, the hard economic news so far for the UK has not been encouraging. Earlier in the week figures showed manufacturing in resumed decline, and likely having spent most of 2015 in recession…Read more…
Corporate and household debt hugely elevated on a (new) longer view on history
The financial and economic crisis is now widely understood as a consequence of excessive private sector debts. A more sustainable economic model into the future has been understood to involve a certain amount of so-called ‘deleveraging, so that debts are reduced as a share of income. Today the ONS…Read more…
EEF Manufacturing Survey – Another ‘Wake-Up’ Call For Government Says Unite
Today’s (Monday 11th January) annual survey by the manufacturers’ organisation EEF is yet another a wake-up call for the government said Britain’s largest union, Unite as it warned manufacturers…Read more…
‘Risk cocktail’: Is the Chancellor complacent about UK consumer debt?
The TUC issued analysis today showing household unsecured debt is now at its highest for five years, measured as a share of income (here). Household unsecured debts, % disposable income The ONS figures on unsecured borrowing (i.e. consumer credit and student loans, but excluding mortgages – see end…Read more…
2016 is the year to end the two-speed economy
Decent wages and security for your family shouldn’t just be the preserve of those at the top of the tree, but should be on offer for everyone.
The post 2016 is the year to end the two-speed economy appeared first on ToUChstone blog.Read more…
Manufacturing – Big Job Losses Predicted For 2016
The EEF (Engineering Employers Federation) is predicting big job losses in UK manufacturing during 2016 – despite the success of the UK automotive, aerospace and pharma sectors. Their latest…Read more…
Andy Haldane at the TUC: technology, labour and policy choices
Interest rates: Ancient Mesopotamia to the present (see end of post for source) On 12 November 2015 Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, spoke at the TUC. While a little late in the day, it is worthwhile to review some of the very important points he made, not least given the…Read more…
ONS Christmas present to Chancellor: a slump in nominal GDP
The final release of economic figures for 2015 does not make happy reading for the Chancellor. Headline GDP for 2015Q3 is revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%; Q2 was 0.5%. On the annual measure comparing with the same quarter a year ago, growth is now 2.1%,…Read more…
Government ‘not alert to UK steel industry crisis warnings’, says Business Committee
The Government was not ‘alert enough’ to the warning bells sounded by UK steel industry, says the Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) Committee in a report published today. The BIS Committee found…Read more…