All the union news that's fit to blog...
In the coverage of the GDP figures last week, some attention was paid to the ONS observation that on a per head basis GDP in 2015 Q2 is likely to be back to the pre-crisis level. This may be all well and good, but is hardly a measure of economic performance. The relevant measure is…
The post…Read more…
Bank of England lending data issued earlier this week (here) showed a reduction in the pace of growth of lending to the private sector for the third month in a row. But as lending to financial and non-financial firms fell, lending to households expanded. Lending growth, month on a year ago As the…Read more…
This quarterly TUC report provides an analysis of UK economic developments over recent months; focuses on the current labour market compared to pre-recession levels; and includes a spotlight feature on productivity since 2008. Summary Economic activity appears to have weakened a little from the…Read more…
GDP quarterly growth was back up to 0.7% in 2015 Q2 from 0.4% in Q1, and was in-line with market expectations. The main reasons for the revival in growth were a surge in energy extraction and use and a rebound in service activity. Acting in the opposite direction was the first fall in manufacturing…Read more…
Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, has said that the UK’s shareholder model of corporate governance is holding back business investment and hurting economic growth. In a fascinating interview on Newsnight with Duncan Weldon (formerly TUC Senior Economist), he said that firms…Read more…
In many ways today’s ONS figures on household indebtedness are unremarkable, given we are increasingly accustomed to figures showing high levels of household debt. By and large the debt burden is continuing to increase. One in five households report financial (i.e. non-mortgage) debts are a ‘heavy’…Read more…
In its newly issued document outlining the approach for the spending review 2015, the government makes some bold statements about public investment. In June the OECD criticised countries for focusing spending cuts on public investment, and in its previ…Read more…
By David Bailey Whatever happened to the ‘March of the Makers’ and the much heralded rebalancing the British economy? This year has so far been pretty dire for UK manufacturing. The…Read more…
Through gritted teeth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has this week issued a ‘staff discussion note’ which contains a bit of a bombshell. The ballooning inequality that results from rampaging top people’s pay is not, as previously thought, an unfortunate by-product of…Read more…
We should not get too carried away by the Treasury’s claimed improvement in the public finances. Borrowing in the current financial year to date (April to June) is £25.1bn, down from £31.3bn in the same period of 2014-15. This indeed amounts to a gain of £6bn, but: 1. this gain over one quarter is…Read more…
June 2015 CPI inflation was back at zero, from 0.1% in May. Likewise core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco ) was back at 0.8% from 0.9% in May. Falling prices are now seen throughout the index. ONS publish CPI figures broken down into some 85 non-overlapping categories (e.g….Read more…
Latest ONS figures show construction falling by -1.3 per cent into May; this follows a Q1 growth figure that was the slowest for two years. The chart below shows the longer view. Construction output caved-in in the early years of the coalition; from ar…Read more…
My former TUC colleague Duncan Weldon, who is now the Newsnight economics correspondent, has written an interesting post for his BBC web page today under the headline ‘Osborne’s “Christian Democrat Budget”? Duncan knows that I’ve long taken an interest in the German economic model and, accordingly,…Read more…
Five years ago, the Chancellor set out policies to bring the public finances back under control. On the basis of any definition, these policies failed. Deficit reduction proceeded greatly slower than planned; public sector debt rose even higher than ex…Read more…
Massive and unfair cuts in tax credits and benefits are going to hit low-paid workers. Can the Chancellor hope to justify his claim that this is a “one nation Budget”? The key to any Budget is how it answers the question who gains and who loses? The big picture is explained well in the…Read more…
“This is a one nation Budget,” announced the Chancellor in his introduction to today’s Budget, before announcing reforms that exclude under 25s from higher pay and 18-21 year olds from housing benefit, scrapping maintenance grants for students, and permitting elite (“high-quality teaching”)…Read more…
Although the Chancellor said today, “We will be bold in delivering the Northern Powerhouse,” he had little to add on his big, unifying idea of “connectivity.” The theory (that I’ve not been able to track down to its evidence base) is that “a transformation in connections between the great cities of…Read more…
George Osborne announced today that the government would introduce a new National Living Wage of £7.20 per hour for workers aged 25 and above, to apply from April 2016 onwards (Budget Report, p32, Para 1.121). This will take the form of an initial 50p supplement to the existing adult rate National…Read more…
There is a lot to absorb in this astonishing budget where those who have suffered most in the recession appear to be paying most for a partial ending of austerity. But in spite of the claimed ‘plan for working people’, it appears that the OBR think households will end up worse not better…Read more…
The headlines from today’s Budget are pretty clear to see: the National Living Wage, an apprenticeship levy for large employers, a further squeeze on benefits. There is little to say on industrial policy and whilst today’s Budget can be viewed as a statement about big themes, concerns that the…Read more…