Well worth reading. An interesting paper produced by David Bailey, Gill Bentley, Alex de Ruyter and Stephen Hall. Click here to download the pdf.Read more…
Examining the reactions to our flagging GDP (a.k.a. the slowest recovery on record ever getting even slower)
A number of themes emerged in the different media commentaries on yesterday’s poor GDP results that are worth further examination: the idea expressed that the figures are highly uncertain and will be heavily revised; that weaker UK growth is in the context of ‘rising instability abroad’ (an…Read more…
The slowest ever recovery slows down again
Quarterly GDP growth is estimated at only 0.3% in 2015 Q1, half the rate of 0.6% seen in both Q3 and Q4 of 2014, and only a third of the 0.9% growth seen a year ago in 2014 Q1. The median view of commentators was for 0.5%, and 0.3% coincided with the most pessimistic of those…
The post The…Read more…
On present form, there’s another 7 years of cuts to come (unless sanity prevails)
Public sector net borrowing figures today showed borrowing of £87.3 billion in the financial year 2014-15. Undoubtedly the Treasury will be making hay of it being marginally lower than the OBR Budget 2015 forecast of £90.2 billion. But the big picture remains the scale of the shortfall against the…Read more…
An increasingly macroeconomic perspective on wages: The Resolution Foundation on the earnings crisis
Review of Securing a pay rise: the path back to shared wage growth, Edited by Gavin Kelly and Conor D’Arcy, The Resolution Foundation This collection of essays is a very valuable overview of progressive opinion on the earnings crisis, a must read for those engaged in any aspects of the debate. Some…Read more…
Infrastructure spending: BBC and now FT coming out in favour – the politicians from the 3 main parties next?
The TUC has long championed increases in infrastructure spending, but the government has instead cut severely this vital expenditure. In an editorial in the weekend edition, the Financial Times took a big step in our direction. The shifting view was se…Read more…
Conservative tax plans help the wealthiest most – but there is a fairer way
At the Conservative party conference last year David Cameron announced that a future Conservative government would seek to introduce two separate income tax cuts: an above inflation increase in the personal allowance and a rise in the higher rate thres…Read more…
Today’s labour market statistics: working people are still paying the price for austerity
Many have argued that employment gains somehow compensate for earnings losses, but this is false. My post on today’s labour market statistics is up at Left Foot Forward.
The post Today’s labour market statistics: working people are still paying the price for austerity appeared first…Read more…
REC/KPMG ‘report on jobs’ shows anticipated pay growth in 2015 of just 1%
As befits the seeming ‘good-economic-news-only’ environment in the run up to the election, last Friday’s REC (The Recruitment & Employment Confederation) report on jobs was issued under the banner: “Stronger growth of staff placements in February” But in the last section of the…Read more…
Zero inflation and still reducing core inflation. To repeat: deflationary pressures are not just about fuel
For once CPI inflation was in line with market expectations, remaining at zero per cent for the second month in a row. But this unchanged reading simply followed because fuel prices were not as low in March as they were in February, falling by -13.7 per cent on the year rather than -16.6 per…Read more…
Construction and production output suggest a slower start to 2015
Today’s production and construction figures continue to suggest a loss of momentum into 2015. While manufacturing was up 0.4 per cent on the month, this did not fully compensate for a fall of -0.6 per cent in January; the more stable three month on three month change shows growth of only 0.1 per…Read more…
Surprise, surprise – we don’t spend so much when there’s a living standards crisis
Really, this is one of those “one chart says it all” stories: Here at the TUC we started worrying about the living standards crisis years ago – and there’s a long way to go before we can say it’s over. But the crisis isn’t just about wages, pensions and other…Read more…
Labour market deregulation: When the facts change…
The famous remark, commonly attributed to Keynes, that “when the facts change, I change my mind…” could be about to face a stern test. The IMF is about to publish the findings of research by staff members that finds no evidence that labour market deregulation promotes growth. This…Read more…
Labour’s Manifesto For Britain’s Workplaces
Here is an edited version of Labour’s ‘A Better Plan For Britain’s Workplaces’, produced by Unite. The central task for the next Labour government is to build an economy that creates better and more…Read more…
What Is Productivity?
CLASS Briefing: Productivity There has been increasing media coverage about the UK’s growing ‘productivity gap’ in the last few weeks, but why is it important? The shaky and unsustainable return to…Read more…
Figures for 2014 change nothing: weak productivity is still caused by austerity
As many argued in the wake of the Budget, productivity outcomes remain a significant concern and major blot on the government’s economic record. Today ONS issued the first figures for 2014 as a whole, showing growth at only 0.5 per cent, up only marginally on 0.4 per cent in 2013 (left chart); they…Read more…
The curious case of yesterday’s living standards ‘good news’
Right from the off yesterday, ONS statistics triggered a celebration of rising living standards. Yet you were hard pushed to find exactly the reason for that celebration. In the newly-issued National Accounts, real household disposable income per head …Read more…
Paying up: who’s been getting pay rises, who hasn’t, and will that change?
Guest post written by Laura Gardiner of LSE and Abigail McKnight of the Resolution Foundation. Britain’s wage squeeze has been well documented. But the public narrative on pay trends has recently suffered from some confusing – and at times highly inaccurate – claims in relation to pay rises for…Read more…
Stats watchdog confirms that 4.1% does NOT “typically represent” pay rises
The UK Statistics Authority has now responded to TUC analysis on earnings estimates for those in continuous employment. We argued that newly calculated figures showing annual earnings growth of 2.3% for those in continuous employment (in their March Ec…Read more…
UK inflation at zero and rate has been falling faster than in eurozone
Inflation fell to zero in February 2014; down from 0.3 per cent in January. Once more the figure came in lower than expectations, on this occasion for 0.1 per cent (including the Bank of England in their latest Inflation Report). CPI records only began in 1989, but ONS projections show figures…Read more…