In fact, this is the slowest UK ‘recovery’ ON RECORD
A second look at historic GDP data shows the current ‘recovery’ is the slowest on record (which extend back to 1830), rather than the slowest recovery in modern history, as we reported yesterday. This chart shows index numbers of recoveries in GDP from the bottom of each recession to…Read more…
The slowest recovery in modern history slows down
GDP figures today disappointed expectations, with growth slowing for the second quarter in row, and increasingly departing already from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility forecast. In numbers: growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter of 2014, from 0.7% in the third quarter. This defied city…Read more…
While the ECB print money, was ex-Governor Lord King calling for fiscal stimulus in the UK?
On Monday evening at the London School of Economics, Lord King, former Governor of the Bank of England, and Sir Alan Budd, former chief economist at HM Treasury and a founder member of the Monetary Policy Committee, had ‘a conversation about central banking’ with Professor Charles Goodhart in the…Read more…
Core inflation is very far from “relatively stable”
There’s a lot of “good deflation” stories in the media today. (‘Almost certainly’ so, according to the FT.) One of the common themes sets the large fall in headline inflation against a rise on the month in ‘core’ inflation (i.e. inflation excluding energy,…Read more…
Deutsche Bank U-turn on deflation
At 0.5%, CPI inflation in December fell below the consensus forecast (0.7%) and way below the Bank of England’s November Inflation Report forecast for 1.0%. This is approaching deflationary territory, and I set out my own views yesterday. Understandably the government is desperately trying to…Read more…
Mark Carney’s letter to George Osborne: What might it say?
When the British economy misses the inflation targets set by the Chancellor, the Governor of the Bank of England has to write him a letter explaining the reasons. It looks like we’re on course to miss tomorrow – for the first time below rather than above target. Here’s what I’ve imagined Mark…Read more…
Planned future spending cuts return us to the Geddes Axe of the 1920s
On the basis of the OBR projections for future spending cuts, the only more severe consolidation in over a century was the Geddes Axe of 1921-23. That these disastrous policies are the nearest precedent for any prospective economic action beggars belief.Read more…
Time for an ethical energy policy
The £8m short term government loan for employee-owned Hatfield colliery, Yorkshire, is a welcome move by the government to protect hundreds of skilled jobs. But that such a loan is needed at all reflects the government’s failure to develop a long term strategy for UK coal in our energy mix,…Read more…
Wages fell £500 last year – 2015 needs a pay rise
Despite the recovery, 2014 has been another miserable year for living standards. The average wage is now worth £50 a week less than when the government came to power. And current policies offer little relief. The Office for Budgetary Responsibility forecast, released with the Autumn Statement,…Read more…
OBR projections confirm five years of the coalition leaves households poorer
If the government are looking for reasons why the public are not sharing their enthusiasm for the condition of the economy (eg ‘Optimism about the economic recovery is in freefall’, from yesterday’s Evening Standard ), they need look little further than the Office for Budgetary Responsibility’s…Read more…
OBR set out scale of tax losses from low pay growth
Yesterday’s OBR report sets out the impacts that low wage work is having for tax revenues, suggesting that the £17bn shortfall we assessed that low earnings have created to date (as set out in IPPR analysis for the TUC last week) is likely to be even larger. Firstly, the OBR point to various…Read more…
Autumn Statement 2014: The Touchstone roundup
The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement is in the papers today for stamp duty changes to help home buyers and a clampdown on tax avoidance. Our bloggers have been unpicking some of the other details though, and they’ve found a rather less rosy picture: Philip Pearson saw little or no benefit…Read more…
Tackling corporate tax avoidance in the Autumn Statement – measures welcome but will they work?
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) notes that the ‘giveaways’ and the ‘takeaways’ in the Autumn Statement roughly balance out. A huge proportion of the so-called ‘takeaways’ – ie, that will generate net income for government revenues – stem from measures to tackle corporate tax avoidance and…Read more…
The real story of the Autumn Statement: the OBR tell the Chancellor to think again
Many are already reporting today’s Autumn Statement in terms of the immediate changes to stamp duty and air travel. But the big headlines were not in the Chancellor’s speech. It’s the OBR’s chilling analysis of the spending cuts that are set to come that should be the real…Read more…
The ‘long-term plan’ is a political plan not an economic plan
Today the OBR released figures that showed, as widely expected, deficit reduction to date has stalled. Balancing the books (one further year into the future) relies on eye-watering and dangerous cuts in departmental spending. Meantime, in the economy, household debts have been revised up by £174…Read more…
Autumn Statement 2014 – What’s in it for industry?
Today’s Autumn Statement contained an important package on growth and productivity. So what did we get? And was it enough? First, there was good news on infrastructure. £15bn was committed to improve the national road network. This includes around £6bn to resurface 80% of the national…Read more…
Britain needs a pay rise, but this #AutumnStatement won’t give us one
Listening to today’s Autumn Statement, it’s clear the living standards crisis has wrecked the Chancellor’s strategy. He has failed his deficit reduction pledge as low-paid Britain is paying much less tax than expected – £17bn less in fact. And businesses won’t be able to find the…Read more…
Forget Europe – the markets hold the real unaccountable power | Mark Serwotka
An unholy matrimony between finance and politics has undermined democracy: it’s time it was reinforced
Listening to economics being discussed in the media is like being read a fairy story. In any…Read more…
Autumn statement 2012: expert verdict
Our experts give their reaction to George Osborne’s autumn statement on the economy
George Osborne has spoken. But what he said on tax will disappoint most people who listened. Continue reading…Read more…