For UK workers the financial crisis has morphed into a real earnings crisis. OECD forecasts suggest that there will be very little respite in the next parliament. Over 2017 and 2018 UK real wages are expected to decline by -0.5%. Only Greece, Italy and…Read more…
Worker Voice: the missing element of the Government’s Industrial Strategy
How important is the voice of workers to the success of industry? Needless to say, industrial success is a collaborative process: the best companies enjoy the benefits of excellent management, engaged shareholders (or a visionary owner) and a talented,…Read more…
Most of us will end up voting for an active industrial strategy. So what will we get?
General election campaigns are an opportunity for competing political parties to set out their visions of the economic and social future of the country. Those visions can be markedly different, but going into this campaign we are in the happy position …Read more…
The strength of the economy matters for the public finances
Summary: It makes no sense to think about the deficit without thinking about the size and strength of the economy. A Newsnight report on the public finances last night was illustrated with a chart seemingly showing high spending causing the deficit. It…Read more…
Why insecurity at work doesn’t need to be the new normal
New research we’ve published today, commissioned from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, shows that insecure work isn’t inevitable. The rise and rise of insecure work in the UK is sometimes treated as a natural consequence of technological and social change. The development of…Read more…
Weaker GDP growth symptomatic of failure of the London-centric model
The economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2017, down on 0.7% in the final quarter of 2017. More than 80% of the first quarter growth was driven by business services and finance. As the chart shows, the increased contribution here (in light grey)…Read more…
Too early to call time on the consumer spending boom
Retail sales have seen their worst decline since 2010. But rising consumer credit figures suggest we’re not at the end of the consumer spending boom just yet. Retail sales volumes declined by -1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, the worse quarterly decline since the first quarter of 2010 (itself…Read more…
100% Business Rates retention should support local economic growth
The government’s Local Government Finance Bill 2016-17 is set to make some radical changes to the way local government will be financed through local business rates (BRs) within England. At present, local government can retain 50% of business rates (BRs), which are essentially a tax on…Read more…
In the Budget Philip Hammond said rising real wages were ‘most important’ – what happened?
8 March 2017, Philip Hammond’s Budget Speech: And most importantly, Mr Deputy Speaker, despite higher-than-target inflation, real wages continue to rise in every year of the forecast. [my emphasis] 12 April 2017, only five weeks later, statistics from ONS Labour Market statistics release…Read more…
How Washington D.C. speaks for Roosevelt’s monumental economic vision
“I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people”, FDR accepting his nomination as presidential candidate, 2 July 1932 credit: Ron Cogswell Preamble Every two years an international Trades Union Confederation delegation from across the world meets with officials…Read more…
A note on the economic impact of Roosevelt’s New Deal
This post is brief background to a longer piece that views Roosevelt’s economics through his impact on Washington D.C. The economic statistics show his initiatives brought the US great depression to a decisive end; they also stabilised the deterioration in the public sector finances. Yet the…Read more…
BEIS Committee of MPs says workers on boards should become “the norm”
The BEIS Parliamentary Committee reports today on its corporate governance inquiry launched last autumn. There is much to welcome in its recommendations, which span workers on boards and remuneration committees, board diversity, executive pay, private companies, directors’ duties and enforcement….Read more…
Nowhere slowly: failures on private debt follow failures on public debt
Today’s figures confirmed what we already knew: that economic growth in 2016 was entirely reliant on the consumer. We also know that workers are in the middle of an unprecedented decline in real wages (at least since Victorian times). So the inevitable result is lower saving and increased growth in…Read more…
Controversies around inflation measurement: Have annual real wages fallen by £2,100 or £1,200 or £800?
Whatever way you look at it, this week’s inflation figures illustrate the threat to living standards that result from the fall in sterling after the referendum. Headline inflation in February rose to 2.3%. Last week’s average earnings data for January (regular pay) was 2.3%. Real earnings growth is…Read more…
Double whammy means biggest monthly hit to real pay growth since financial crisis
Pay growth down and inflation up means the lowest real pay growth for more than two years, and the sharpest decline on the month since the global recession in 2009. Average earnings growth slowed to 2.3% in January 2017 from 2.6 % in December Inflation…Read more…
#Budget2017: Boost for technical skills funding
As with much of the Budget, the package of skills measures contained few surprises as the various announcements had been trailed extensively beforehand. Nevertheless, there is much to welcome in the Budget on technical education and skills, in particul…Read more…
#Budget2017: Self-employment tax changes
Increases in taxation of self-employment may raise more money for the exchequer but will do little to clamp down on bad employers who force staff into bogus self-employment to lower their tax bill Today’s standout Budget measure was the increase in the tax paid by the self-employed, with the rate…Read more…
#Budget2017: Zero out of four
Yesterday we set the Chancellor four tests for whether his Budget would deliver for working people. Today we have no good news to report. This wasn’t a budget for living standards, it didn’t give the British economy the investment it needs to see us through the uncertainty of Brexit, and public…Read more…
Four tests of whether the Budget delivers for working people
As she started her campaign to be Prime Minister, Theresa May promised to put the power of government in the service of working people. So far, there’s little sign that the Chancellor has got the message, with his pre-budget interviews focusing on ‘fiscal discipline’ at the same time as pressing…Read more…
Unions must be at the heart of industrial strategy
Two bits of news caught my eye today. The first was new figures showing the number of workers on zero hour contacts has hit an all time high – with over 900,000 people now working on contracts which leave them wondering how much they will be earning from day to day, week to week. This…
The…Read more…