Today Lord Kerslake (the head of the home civil service, 2012-2014) published his independent review of the Treasury, with launch events in London and Manchester. The report was commissioned by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell; TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady was on the panel amongst others…Read more…
Budget blogs: Springing into action…
The new(ish) Chancellor’s first Budget, due on 7th March, would normally be seen as a key political moments in the year. It’s an opportunity for Government to dominate the headlines and give a cash based indication of their priorities. But with Brexit hoovering up political attention, not to…Read more…
Len McCluskey Speech On Brexit & Manufacturing
Liverpool, 2nd February 2017 Let me start by welcoming you all here today – What a fantastic turn out. We have over 200 people here today, shop stewards from across our manufacturing sector,…Read more…
Excellent article from the Wall Street Journal: The End Of Employees
Never before have big employers tried so hard to hand over chunks of their business to contractors. From Google to Wal-Mart, the strategy prunes costs for firms and job security for millions of…Read more…
1000 More Euro millionaires is a symptom of a disordered banking sector
In 2015 there were 4,133 €-millionaire bankers in UK. This figure is up 20% on 2,926 the previous year. In the rest of Europe, the increase was more modest from 934 to 1002 (+7%). The sharp eyed will gather that we are home to 4,133 of 5,035 €-millionaire bankers in Europe as a whole,…Read more…
Banks are lending to buy houses, not build businesses
The days of the credit crunch can seem to be well and truly behind us. 2016 was the second successive year when bank lending to the economy was in positive territory – that is the total loans issued were greater than repayments. In total bank (net) lending in 2016 was £79bn, up from £39bn…Read more…
Designing a responsible corporate tax policy for Brexit Britain
Last month, the Prime Minister announced the government’s new industrial strategy through a green paper, inviting responses via a consultation. In a 132-page document, tax was mentioned just 14 times. Yet it is undoubtedly the case that taxation is a core component of a government’s economy policy….Read more…
How can we respond to Trumponomics?
How to respond to the populism and protectionism of Donald Trump will be one of the biggest challenges facing mainstream economists and politicians in 2017. A good starting point for that debate might be Martin Wolf’s wide ranging article in today’s Financial Times (£), ‘Donald Trump’s tough…Read more…
What are robots for?
It would seem digitisation is occurring, at a greater or lesser pace in different countries. There are ever-more sophisticated computers, robots and advances in AI. Whether we are on the tipping point of a fourth industrial revolution, is a pertinent q…Read more…
Lost: £200bn of GDP
Today 2016 Q4 GDP figures showed growth of 0.6 %, and the economy continuing to survive the Brexit vote. But we should not lose the wood for the trees. The economy is still bearing serious scars of the financial crisis and the austerity which followed. Today’s figures also give us an annual figure…Read more…
What impact are robots having on jobs?
The debate about technological change, and whether it could lead to widespread unemployment has been revived in recent years in several studies. The seminal 2013 paper by Frey and Osborne sparked much debate about the impact of digitisation. They claim…Read more…
How fast is technological change happening?
This is the first in a series of blogs considering the extent of robotisation and its impact. In a lecture at the TUC in November 2015, Andy Haldane, Chief Economist to the Bank of England said that “we may be on the cusp of the fourth industrial revolution”. Clearly, the use of technology is…Read more…
Green Paper on Industrial Strategy: a good start and more work to do
This afternoon, the Government has launched its long-awaited Green Paper on industrial strategy. This could turn out to be a significant moment in the fortunes of Theresa May’s Premiership: with Brexit placing, at the very least, a question mark over the UK’s economic prospects in the near future,…Read more…
Jobs & living standards no longer top priority for government
Although her speech on industrial strategy on Monday could redress the balance a bit, the Prime Minister’s speech on Brexit last week confirmed that her government is putting jobs and living standards lower down their agenda than exiting the European Union and reducing migration. Is the era…Read more…
6 steps to an industrial strategy for good jobs, a strong economy and a cleaner planet
Early this week the government is due to announce details of its long-awaited green paper on industrial strategy. This announcement would be important at any time, but in the context of Brexit, an active, intelligent, sustainable industrial strategy will be essential to the UK’s economic fortunes….Read more…
Higher pay growth in lower paid industries
There are countless reasons to not get carried away by today’s pay growth figures – with regular pay in the private sector hitting 3 per cent in November. (To recap: with accelerating inflation, real pay growth has stalled at 1.7% and is likely to get worse. We’ve been here before: with nominal…Read more…
Globalisation isn’t a ‘given’
Thanks to Geoff Tily, who co-authored this blog. The impact of globalisation on working people’s wages, jobs and prospects emerged as one of the key themes of 2016, following the seismic political developments in both Europe and the US. 2017 sees no sign of the debate going away. The policymaking…Read more…
Globalisation’s strength is through domestic demand – that’s why it’s in crisis
The current debate on globalization is characterised by the idea that trade is becoming more and more important to prosperity. A very standard illustration shows trade growth as a share of GDP progressively increasing over the last 50 years – see Annex. (NB this post is background to…Read more…
We are more equal (because we are all worse off)
Normally figures (here) showing the income distribution had narrowed to the lowest point for thirty years – since 1986, the height of Thatcherism – would be reason for celebration. But these are not normal times. The country may be less unequal, but everybody is poorer. Thatcherites used to boast…Read more…
Household debt is higher than in 2008, is history repeating?
The latest TUC figures on household debt show that consumer credit is still filling the gap left by anaemic wage growth. Data from the Bank of England shows that total consumer credit (that is excluding both mortgages and student loans) grew by 10.8% in November 2016 compared with a year before….Read more…