Over 2008 to 2015, UK real wages fell by 1% a year. This puts the UK 103rd out of 112 countries for wage growth over the post-crisis period, on the basis of International Labour Organisation figures. The average wage growth across all countries was +2.3% a year and the median +1.6%. There were…Read more…
Investment decline + reliance on consumers = bad news for the economy
The new official GDP figures out today paint a worrying picture for the longer term, despite many of the headlines. Our economy is severely imbalanced – totally reliant on consumer spending to stay afloat, with no sign of the Chancellor’s promised rally in investment. That’s…Read more…
Budget blogs: Looking to the longer term
So far this week we’ve outlined the main challenges facing the Chancellor as he prepares his budget, and looked at the sharp rise in insecurity at work, and the hole it’s punching in the public finances. Today’s post looks at the longer term challenge of producing more good jobs and an economy that…Read more…
Budget blogs: The fiscal cost of insecure work
Yesterday’s Budget blog focused on challenges facing the Chancellor as he prepares for the last Spring Budget. New TUC research out today shows why tackling the rise of insecure work should be high on the Chancellor’s agenda, revealing the £4bn a year cost of the rise in low-paid self employment…Read more…
Kerslake review of Treasury warns that austerity has failed
Today Lord Kerslake (the head of the home civil service, 2012-2014) published his independent review of the Treasury, with launch events in London and Manchester. The report was commissioned by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell; TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady was on the panel amongst others…Read more…
Budget blogs: Springing into action…
The new(ish) Chancellor’s first Budget, due on 7th March, would normally be seen as a key political moments in the year. It’s an opportunity for Government to dominate the headlines and give a cash based indication of their priorities. But with Brexit hoovering up political attention, not to…Read more…
Len McCluskey Speech On Brexit & Manufacturing
Liverpool, 2nd February 2017 Let me start by welcoming you all here today – What a fantastic turn out. We have over 200 people here today, shop stewards from across our manufacturing sector,…Read more…
Excellent article from the Wall Street Journal: The End Of Employees
Never before have big employers tried so hard to hand over chunks of their business to contractors. From Google to Wal-Mart, the strategy prunes costs for firms and job security for millions of…Read more…
1000 More Euro millionaires is a symptom of a disordered banking sector
In 2015 there were 4,133 €-millionaire bankers in UK. This figure is up 20% on 2,926 the previous year. In the rest of Europe, the increase was more modest from 934 to 1002 (+7%). The sharp eyed will gather that we are home to 4,133 of 5,035 €-millionaire bankers in Europe as a whole,…Read more…
Banks are lending to buy houses, not build businesses
The days of the credit crunch can seem to be well and truly behind us. 2016 was the second successive year when bank lending to the economy was in positive territory – that is the total loans issued were greater than repayments. In total bank (net) lending in 2016 was £79bn, up from £39bn…Read more…
Designing a responsible corporate tax policy for Brexit Britain
Last month, the Prime Minister announced the government’s new industrial strategy through a green paper, inviting responses via a consultation. In a 132-page document, tax was mentioned just 14 times. Yet it is undoubtedly the case that taxation is a core component of a government’s economy policy….Read more…
How can we respond to Trumponomics?
How to respond to the populism and protectionism of Donald Trump will be one of the biggest challenges facing mainstream economists and politicians in 2017. A good starting point for that debate might be Martin Wolf’s wide ranging article in today’s Financial Times (£), ‘Donald Trump’s tough…Read more…
What are robots for?
It would seem digitisation is occurring, at a greater or lesser pace in different countries. There are ever-more sophisticated computers, robots and advances in AI. Whether we are on the tipping point of a fourth industrial revolution, is a pertinent q…Read more…
Lost: £200bn of GDP
Today 2016 Q4 GDP figures showed growth of 0.6 %, and the economy continuing to survive the Brexit vote. But we should not lose the wood for the trees. The economy is still bearing serious scars of the financial crisis and the austerity which followed. Today’s figures also give us an annual figure…Read more…
What impact are robots having on jobs?
The debate about technological change, and whether it could lead to widespread unemployment has been revived in recent years in several studies. The seminal 2013 paper by Frey and Osborne sparked much debate about the impact of digitisation. They claim…Read more…
How fast is technological change happening?
This is the first in a series of blogs considering the extent of robotisation and its impact. In a lecture at the TUC in November 2015, Andy Haldane, Chief Economist to the Bank of England said that “we may be on the cusp of the fourth industrial revolution”. Clearly, the use of technology is…Read more…
Green Paper on Industrial Strategy: a good start and more work to do
This afternoon, the Government has launched its long-awaited Green Paper on industrial strategy. This could turn out to be a significant moment in the fortunes of Theresa May’s Premiership: with Brexit placing, at the very least, a question mark over the UK’s economic prospects in the near future,…Read more…
Jobs & living standards no longer top priority for government
Although her speech on industrial strategy on Monday could redress the balance a bit, the Prime Minister’s speech on Brexit last week confirmed that her government is putting jobs and living standards lower down their agenda than exiting the European Union and reducing migration. Is the era…Read more…
6 steps to an industrial strategy for good jobs, a strong economy and a cleaner planet
Early this week the government is due to announce details of its long-awaited green paper on industrial strategy. This announcement would be important at any time, but in the context of Brexit, an active, intelligent, sustainable industrial strategy will be essential to the UK’s economic fortunes….Read more…
Higher pay growth in lower paid industries
There are countless reasons to not get carried away by today’s pay growth figures – with regular pay in the private sector hitting 3 per cent in November. (To recap: with accelerating inflation, real pay growth has stalled at 1.7% and is likely to get worse. We’ve been here before: with nominal…Read more…